Digital Root

QR Codes and That Guy Who Uses Them

 

Forrester released a study on QR/Barcode mobile usage.  QR/2D barcode scanning is up to 5% (from 1% a year ago) for smart-phone users in the US. Earlier reports stated a total of 14MM "scanned a QR code ever", but its unknown if this was a superset of smartphone or general mobile users.

Either way, it’s still a small market – 6MM people in the US, primarily in the 25-34 "affluent" demo.  Something to consider when adding QR codes (especially if its intent is solely to redirect to a URL) to print/web materials.  In fact, if you're setting up QR codes to redirect to a simply root URL, you're wasting your time.

Because these reports rarely quantify their numbers, I pulled the latest survey data from Q3'11 US Census, CITA, ITU and Nielsen data.

 

Mobile QR Code Usage in the US

Approx Mobile accounts:                 285.0MM

Approx Smart Phones:                     114.5MM

Approx QR/Barcode Users:                5.7MM

 

Over the next 24 months I'm expecting to see a shift from QR code usage to object/image recognition as redirect markers.  Most smartphones can train and recognize an image or object in the real world as a redirect or augmentive marker, rendering the insano checkerboard that is a QR code less novel.

Agile Is Dead

Agile methods for planning - from software to market research - have evolved to a buzz/hype laden, heavy, and bureaucratic burden. At least in many shops that have too many people bearing spreadsheets and too few creating unit tests.

In practice I've restricted Agile/RUP/XP/etc to the minimum applicable elements necessary to get the job done consistently and humanely. Typically this means a basic sizing/risk estimate for discrete stories (oops my 1990's XP training is showing), pushing the high risk elements into early prototyping, burn/build tracking and iterative assignments. 

Generally it gives our teams what they need - projects that have the features and functions it needs, clear visibility, ability to change scope and assurance of date/budget delivery.

Applied to planning (advertising / product or research) a recent book eschews the mythos and hype around agile and boils it down to simplified experimentation. I read a good review that simplified it even further:

It's about doing the minimum amount of work needed to get to, or inspire, an idea.  It's about cutting down the waste - things like deliberating adjective soup and brand vegetables for 3 months.

It's about generating hypotheses that can be tested, not sitting in an ivory tower with a damp towel on your head waiting for the answer to appear like divine inspiration.

It's about making stuff that can be tested in the real world, not running weeks of focus groups to hear people talk about how they think they think or might behave.

It's about making as few charts as possible to explain a strategy or idea - get to the work

It's about understanding that strategy has to evolve and morph over time (whilst being aware there's a danger that this could become an excuse for superficiality).

It's a bias to doing over thinking.  

It's about doing stuff to learn stuff.

It's more like experimentation than planning as we know it.

 

 

Gaming YouTube

Youtube is reported to be the second largest search engine in existence, placing well above Yahoo! and Bing in terms of traffic. However, unlike Google, Yahoo! or Bing, there's little you can do to drive your videos to the top placement; short of being wildly popular.  And if that's the case, you're probably not reading this blog post.  YouTube while having the second largest search volume, they have less than .1% of web pages indexed by Google, providing a dramatically less competitive environment to get placed.

Based upon various online discussions, I concluded that searches within YouTube were subject to unintended but effective optimization techniques - just like normal search engines. To prove this, I setup a test with a well known brand (name withheld) that had less than 50 videos and less than 1500 lifetime views.

Cleaning up their tags, links and descriptive text was the first step, to make sure they were consistent, but the break-through was enabling Closed Captioning (as in for the deaf closed captioning) for every one of their videos. Essentially, we created our own closed caption script and uploaded the videos with them vs. using YouTube's automatic option.

The results were impressive – a 508% sustained improvement search results.

It appears that Youtube/Google uses the text from the closed-caption to index your video. When a user searches for a topic the words placed in your closed captioning text will be matched and placed higher in the search results.  In cases where your keywords are clouded by unrelated videos and hash tags, closed captioning may enable you to consistently place above other videos.

Optimizing search for images, videos and other rich content is untapped territory with a big payoff for relatively little effort. The simple technique of adding closed caption text to every video out performed paid sponsorships, link building and generating content.

Bullet Time With Motion Video

Bullet time - the effect popularized in The Matrix - typically uses 24 still images stitched together to create a single from of video, or video-like dimensional motion. Working with the medium however, presents limitations when you want to tell a story using flowing motion and moving components.

A series of intelligent tools from Revisionfx introduces an amazingly simple, yet effective mechanism to achieve the effect of bullet time while still using video.

The particular tool, Twixtor intelligently combines sequence frames allow you to speed up or slow down the action to achieve the effect. These are two great examples of using lo-res video with Twixtor to generate cinematic effects with standard tools.

Experience Human Flight from Betty Wants In on Vimeo.

 

More Super Slow Motion [Water] - 550D from Rickard Bengtsson on Vimeo.

 

 

Simple But Brilliant: UX Mobile Stencils

When designing websites, the first place we often go is to the wipe board or a sketch pad to block out ideas. Mobile applications however don't translate as well because of the inherent size and unusual form in which widgets take shape.

Enter UI Stencils.  Sleek stencils and notepads designed to make it simple to quickly mock up mobile apps with pencil and paper. These will allow designers and creatives to put ideas into action collaboratively while keeping close to the final form it'll take in a graffle or wireframe.

The Phone Game

This is what happens when the simplest of tasks is repeated from one person to another. Imagine how highly fragmented and complex ideas become when there isn't a common language or protocol for describing the concept. 

Its also why I have the "3-email rule".  If something takes more than 3 emails to convey, its probably too complex or political and should be discussed in person.

Note: The exception to this case is when a team has a highly concise protocol for conveying information and a means to uniformly test for parity.

 

A Sequence of Lines Traced by Five Hundred Individuals from clement valla on Vimeo.

Showing Numbers In Context

The Boston Globe demonstrates the value of showing numbers in context when building charts.  Often times, charts will casually depict numbers on different scales (e.g., Millions and Billions side by side) which obscures interpretation.

When creating visualizations, try to keep values on a relative scale whenever possible. If not, try to create a common measurement for context (as Shaq is below).  And when all else fails, try using a natural log version to illustrate the relative shape of the data.

 

But Her Chi-Square Is Really Cute

Repost from Andrew Gelman (Professor of Statistics @ Columbia University) :

Brian Mulford writes:

I [Mulford] ran across this blog post and found myself questioning the relevance of the test used.

I'd think Chi-Square would be inappropriate for trying to measure significance of choice in the manner presented here; irrespective of the cute hamster. Since this is a common test for marketers and website developers - I'd be interested in which techniques you might suggest?

For tests of this nature, I typically measure a variety of variables (image placement, size, type, page speed, "page feel" as expressed in a factor, etc) and use LOGIT, Cluster and possibly a simple Bayesian model to determine which variables were most significant (chosen). Pearson Chi-squared may be used to express relationships between variables and outcome but I've typically not used it to simply judge a 0/1 choice as statistically significant or not.

My reply:

I like the decision-theoretic way that the blogger (Jason Cohen, according to the webpage) starts:

If you wait too long between tests, you're wasting time. If you don't wait long enough for statistically conclusive results, you might think a variant is better and use that false assumption to create a new variant, and so forth, all on a wild goose chase! That's not just a waste of time, it also prevents you from doing the correct thing, which is to come up with completely new text to test against.

But I agree with Mulford that chi-square is not the way to go. I'd prefer a direct inference on the difference in proportions. Take that inference--the point estimate and its uncertainty, estimated using the usual (y+1)/(n+2) formulas--and then carry that uncertainty into your decision making. Balance costs and benefits, and all that.

Moving forward, you're probably making lots and lots of this sort of comparison, so put it into a hierarchical model and you'll get inferences that are more reasonable and more precise.

But . . . who knows? Maybe Cohen's advice is a net plus. Ignoring the chi-square stuff, the key message I take away from the above-linked blog is that, with small samples, randomness can be huge. And that's an important lesson--really, one of the key concepts in statistics. Don't overreact to small samples. If the silly old chi-square test is your way of coming to this conclusion, that's not so bad.

 

 

 

Simple Retargeting Beats Out Statistical-Models

Comscore published a report on the effective payoff for varying display campaigns earlier this week.

Unlike many ad-research reports, Comscore reviewed a variety of campaigns and placement strategies from broad network buys, to re-targeting and behavioral targeting and how they impacted overall conversion. 

Included in their analysis:

•  Impact from a search perspective – did display formats drive post-impression activity?

• Life-time impact of conversion – did a responder not only visit the website, but did they become a customer and continue beyond the first purchase?

•  Cost Performance - Relative cost/reach of each type of placement.

 

 Findings:

Surprisingly, the contextual, optimized and behavioral strategies had similar results to run-of-network and other less ‘intelligent’ methods. However re-targeting had an average performance 200%-300% better than every other placement, but obviously is  gated by reach (people are only re-targeted if they visited the site first – thus a smaller audience).

   

In my experience optimization can work well within a site, creating a contextual and meaningful interaction (think Netflix or Amazon) but less so for ad campaigns.  Re-targeting can be very powerful for high-intent consumers who browsed and left or abandoned a cart.  Behavioral can work, but I suspect the conditions are too variable campaign to campaign to be effectively measured in a study like this one.

 

Conclusions :

• While these finding’s aren’t applicable to every situation, they illustrate the diminishing returns on overly sophisticated display placements. In the end, intelligent media planning, mixed strategy and common-sense re-targeting garner the biggest payoffs. 

•  Search and post-impression continue to be undervalued but significant as a metric for behavior and campaign ROI.

 

Patterns in Thinking

I read an interesting blog post from Without Geometry Life is Pointless regarding the notion of problem solving and thinking.

The list, which references the works of many authors is a good example of techniques used in many disciplines.  I've personally used many of these in Marketing, Analytics and Computer Science, but suspect these will be useful in any applied context.

In particular, I find the order of these elements are important.  Start with bounding, then work backwards, and develop tests to validate your findings.

You'll notice that none of the entries is "read up or Google answers".  Thinking in abstract is often times best done entirely without external influence. Its astounding how often you'll find holes and opportunities in subjects that are well documented.

1.    Pattern Sniff

A.     On the lookout for patterns
“Ok.  We’ve been working on this staircase problem and it seems that you can’t write perfect squares as a sum of consecutive whole numbers.”

B.     On the lookout for shortcuts
“It would be nice if there were a faster way to do 57x34 than adding 57 to itself 34 times. Think we can find a way?”

2.    Experiment, Guess and Conjecture

A.     Can begin to work on a problem independently
“I’m not sure how to solve this problem, but I’m confident I can make some progress.”

B.     Estimates
“Without doing any calculations, I’m guessing that it will take him 30 seconds to walk up the down escalator.”

C.     Conjectures
“Based on my work, I think the following is true.”

D.    Healthy skepticism of experimental results
“Boy, it sure seems like this 4, 2, 1 thing always repeats but we don’t have a proof yet.”

E.     Determines lower and upper bounds
“I know it will take the people at least 10 minutes to cross the bridge because the 10 minute soldier has to cross the bridge.  I also found a solution that takes 19 minutes so I know the final answer is somewhere between 10 and 19 minutes.”

F.     Looks at small or large cases to find and test conjectures
“I made a table of the first 5 cases and I think I see a pattern.  I’m going to see if this pattern holds for the 100^th case.”

G.     Is thoughtful and purposeful about which case(s) to explore

H.    Keeps all but one variable fixed

“So I’m exploring the equation y=mx+b and I’m wondering how the graph changes as m and b change.  For now, I’m going to set m to 1 and just look at how the graph changes when I change b.”

I.      Varies parameters in regular and useful ways

(Even/odd example)

J.      Works backwards (guesses at a solution and see if it makes sense)

3.    Organize & Simplify

A.     Records results in a useful way
“I’m going to make a table.”

B.     Process, solutions and answers are detailed and easy to follow

C.     Looks at information about the problem or solution in different ways

D.    Determine whether the problem can be broken up into simpler pieces
“I think I can solve this problem by solving these other 2 simpler problems.”

E.     Considers the form of data (deciding when, for example, 1+2 is more helpful than 3)

“I’m going to leave my fraction as 6/36 because the 6 represents the number of ways you can roll a 7 with 2 standard dice and the 36 represents the total number of rolls.”

F.     Uses parity and other methods to simplify and classify cases
“Next time we play 21 Nim I’m going to keep track of whether the running sum is a multiple of 3, one more than a multiple of 3, or 2 more than a multiple of 3.”

4.    Describe

A.     Verbal/visual articulation of thoughts, results, conjectures, arguments, process, proofs, questions, opinions

B.     Written articulation of thoughts, results, conjectures, arguments, process, proofs, questions, opinions

C.     Can explain both how and why

“The algorithm for dividing fractions is simple.  Now I just need to work on making sense why this works.” 

D.    Creates precise problems

E.     Invents notation and language when helpful
“For the sugar weighing problem, I don’t want to have to write out every solution in words so I’m going to let the symbol 3w~3s stand for the act of putting the 3 pound weight on one side of the balance scale, measuring out 3 pounds of sugar on the other side of the scale, and then setting aside the sugar.”

F.     Ensures that this invented notation and language is precise
“I need to be careful that I am differentiating between sugar that I am measuring and sugar I am using as a weight.”

5.     Tinker & Invent
         A.   Creates variations

B.     Looks at simpler examples when necessary

C.     Looks at more complicated examples when necessary

D.    Creates extensions and generalizations

E.     Creates algorithms for doing things

F.     Looks at statements that are generally false to see when they are true

G.     Creates and alters rules of a game

H.    Creates axioms for a mathematical structure

I.      Invents new mathematical systems that are innovative, but not arbitrary

6.    Visualize

A.     Uses pictures to describe and solve problems

B.     Uses manipulatives to describe and solve problems

C.     Reasons about shapes

“I see how this structure is made.”

D.    Visualizes data

E.     Looks for symmetry

F.     Visualizes relationships (using tools such as Venn diagrams and graphs)

G.     Vizualizes processes (using tools such as graphic organizers)

H.    Visualizes changes

I.      Visualizes calculations (such as doing arithmetic mentally)

7.    Strategize, Reason and Prove

A.     Moves from data driven conjectures to theory based conjectures

B.     Tests conjectures using thoughtful cases

C.     Proves conjectures using reasoning

D.    Looks for mistakes or holes in proofs

8.    Connect

A.     Articulates how different skills and concepts are related

B.     Applies old skills and concepts to new material

C.     Describes problems and solutions using multiple representations

D.    Finds and exploits similarities between problems (invariants, isomorphisms)

9.    Listen & Collaborate

A.     Respectful to others when they are talking

B.     Asks for clarification when necessary

C.     Challenges others in a respectful way when there is disagreement

D.    Participates

E.     Ensures that everyone else has the chance to participate

F.     Willing to ask questions when needed

G.     Willing to help others when needed

H.    Shares work in an equitable way

I.      Gives others the opportunity to have “aha” moments

c    Contextualize, Reflect and Persevere

A.     Determines givens

B.     Eliminates unimportant information

C.     Makes and articulates reasonable assumptions

D.    Determines if answer is reasonable

E.     Determines if there are additional or easier explanations

F.     Continuously reflects on process

G.     Works on one problem for greater and greater lengths of time

H.    Spends more and more time stuck without giving up