Digital Root

Using Search To Predict Hits

There are over 100MM internet searches performed daily. Keywords, phrases and numbers are collected and stored within the major search providers vast databases.

What if that search data could be used to predict trends before they happen?

In 2008 and 2009 Google researchers showed some success in trending flu cases using search data alone. However,  most studies since have been inconclusive, or statistically irrelevant.

A few researchers working with Yahoo! recently leapfrogged prior studies by formulating a set of statistical models that were comparable to baseline models.  The intent was to see if by just using search data, could they get close to well-informed models.  The first step was to observe the impact of time on the models. In the case of Movies, Games and Music, build up towards release showed significant traffic spikes, signaling consumer intent (or interest).

The conclusion of the studies showed that search data alone - automatically generated models predicted revenue/success for  Games, Music, and Movie releases with an overall range of 74%-93% accuracy. 

The regression (log) scatterplot below depicts the model visually. The dots represent predictive values, the line actual baseline. The closer the dots are to the line, the more predictive the regression is said to be. In this case, with Theatrical releases, the model had a near 80% accuracy for success based solely on search volume data.

 

The same models can't be used universally for all topics, products or brands. And these models may be improved upon by adding more variables, or using traditional methods of measurement.

The big deal here is that using something as simple as query data - future outcomes are meaningfully predictable. The reduction in cost and time in rendering the models is staggering.

In addition to search, mining unstructured internet data, social media and sentiment often reveals trends that weren't visible through traditional studies. When combined with Direct-Survey & Consumer Insight analysis, the planning capacity grows dramatically and informs marketers in a whole new, and often surprising way.

2010: The Year Your Mom Changed The Face Of Gaming

Projected to earn over $1B in revenues in 2010, social gaming is taking the market by storm.  By 2011, projected sales generated from these games will be on-par with all software sales for Nintendo's Wii.

In a recent report from social game maker Pop Cap, the most surprising revelation is that the growth isn't coming from PC or console gamers; Its coming from middle aged women.

In the report, nearly 80% of players are between 40 and 70 years old (!!) and approx 60% are women.  Single, married, kids and no-kids all play social games like Farmville and Mafia wars regularly.

Amongst other findings, Pop Cap's survey revealed:

• Facebook is far and away the most popular destination for social gamers; 83% of social gamers cite Facebook as a place where they play social games, compared to 24% who play on MySpace, 7% on Bebo and 5% who play on Friendster.
• Social gamers spend 39% of all their time on social networking sites/services playing games. The second and third most popular social networking activities among social gamers are chatting with/messaging friends (17%) and playing non-social (solo) games (15%).
• When asked to choose as many reasons as they wanted for playing social games from a lengthy list, social gamers cited "fun and excitement" as the most popular motivation (53%). Stress relief (45%) and "competitive spirit" (43%) were next most popular respectively, followed by "mental workout" (32%) and "connect with others" (24%).
• Nearly half (49%) of the times when they log into social networks, social gamers do so specifically to play social games.

The implications are staggering for social media networks and interactive markers alike.   A recent innovative campaign launched by Ignited and Appsavvy, integrated Universal Pictures' Public Enemies content into Mafia wars. The results we're staggering considering the cost and complexity of generating equivalent impressions& engagement stats using more traditional digital tactics.

Over the next 18-24 months social gaming will become a mechanism to reach audiences in richer, more engaging ways - and likely more cost effectively than banner ads.